Welcome to LeGrosPanda football Correct Score Tips. Here we analyze statistics, form and other trends to give you the best tips possible – Good Luck !!!
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What is Correct Score betting?
More intricate than simply guessing the result of a game, correct score betting involves predicting the exact score. Bookmakers tend to put limits on how many goals you can predict a team to score. So if you can choose between 0 and 6 goals for each team, there are 49 different potential outcomes for that match. Naturally, odds are long for correct score betting, which makes it highly popular to bettors. Monster rewards can be on offer for those savvy enough to predict correctly.
Which bookmaker should I use for your Correct Score tips?
Any bookmaker that offers odds on football matches should offer the ability to place an accumulator. However, if you’re looking for our top picks for placing acca tips then select one of the below bookmakers:
How do we calculate Correct Score?
To be able to improve our quality of football prediction, We use the Poisson Distribution. So you need to learn it and use a bit of mathematics. Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept that will help you to outline the possible outcomes of games by converting the historical mean data. Let’s us use a simple example to make it more understandable. Let us assume that Team A scores 1.7 goals per match. So we have to put this data into the Poisson distribution formula, we will obtain the following results:
• Team A scores 0 goals 18.3% of the time
• Team A scores 1 goal 31% of the time
• Team A scores 2 goals 26.4% of the time
• Team A scores 3 goals 15% of the time
First things first
You will have to perform a couple of steps so as to be able to predict the score. Firstly, we need to find out the average number of goals each team scores. For that, we would need the «Attack Strength» and «Defence Strength» data.
This data plays a crucial role in our calculations. If the data range would be too long, the results will not be satisfying, and if it is too short, it may happen that some data would be above our designated range. So, you can always get this data from the seasonal statistics of any football league/competition.
To calculate Attack Strength, we would need to find the average of home and away goals scored by each team.
This is very simple as you just have to divide the total amount of goals by the number of games played.
Season total goals scored at home / number of games (in season)
Season total goals scored away / number of games (in season)
For example, let’s use the 2019/2020English Premier League data. By putting all the necessary information into the simple formula, we would get:
Average number of goals scored at home: 1.492
Average number of goals scored away: 1.207
Attack Strength is the ration between the league’s and the team’s averages.
For this part,we have lesser calculations to do here, as they have already been done previously. All you need to do it reverse the previous results because the goals a home team scores are conceded by the away team and vice versa. Therefore, our results will look the following way:
Average number of goals conceded at home: 1.207
Average number of goals conceded away from home: 1.492
Once again, the Defence Strength is the ratio between the league’s and the team’s averages.
Once you gathered all the above information, you can try to predict the goals. Just apply these formulas following these easy steps:
Step 1 – You have to take the total home goals scored by a team and divide it by the total number of home games.
Step 2 – Divide the answer you get by the league’s average home goals divided by the total home games.
Team’s home goals – THG
Team’s home matches – THM
League’s home goals – LHG
League’s home matches – LHM
(THG/THM) / (LHG/LHM) = Attack Strength
Step 3 – You have to take the total goals conceded by a team while away and divide it by the total number of away games.
Step 4 – Divide the answer you get by the league’s average goals conceded while away divided by the total away games.
Team’s conceded goals – TCG
Team’s away matches – TAM
League’s conceded goals – LCG
League’s away matches – LAM
(TCG/TAM) / (LCG/LAM) = Defense Strength
Step 4 – Now, all you left to do is to calculate the possible number of goals. To do so, just multiply the home team’s Attack Strength by the away team’s Defense Strength and by the league’s average number of home goals.
Attack Strength – AS
Defense Strength – DS
Home Team – HT
Away Team – AT
HTAS x ATDS x LHG = Possible home team goals
ATAS x HTDS x LHG = Possible away team goals